As wildfires force evacuations, destroy homes and send smoke across Oregon and the West, some people are apparently watching the devastation with something other than concern.
They’re betting money on it.
Online prediction markets have begun offering contracts that allow users to wager on wildfire outcomes, including how large a fire will become, how long it will burn and how much destruction it will cause.
Now, Oregon’s two U.S. senators are joining a federal effort to put a stop to it.
Sens. Jeff Merkley and Ron Wyden were among nine Democratic senators who sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, calling for restrictions on prediction markets tied to wildfires and other natural disasters.
The lawmakers argue that turning wildfires into betting opportunities minimizes the suffering of people who lose homes, businesses and loved ones. They’re also warning that the practice could create serious public safety risks, and rightfully so.
One of the biggest concerns is arson.
Because wildfire outcomes can be influenced by human behavior, senators say someone with money riding on a fire could theoretically be tempted to start a new blaze, interfere with firefighting efforts or help an existing fire spread.
The markets could also create opportunities for insider trading by people with access to information that hasn’t yet been released to the public.
According to the senators’ letter, more than $1.2 million was wagered through the offshore prediction platform Polymarket during the Palisades and Eaton fires in Southern California in January 2025.
Those fires killed 31 people and destroyed more than 16,000 structures.
Some bets reportedly focused on how long the fires would continue, how large they would grow and how much damage they would cause.
Another wildfire-focused platform has also appeared in California. That service currently uses simulated points rather than real money, but its arrival has added to concerns that disaster betting could become more common.
Prediction markets generally allow people to purchase contracts based on whether a particular event will happen. They’ve become increasingly popular for elections, sporting events, weather, wars and other major news stories.
Supporters sometimes argue that the markets can collect useful information and produce accurate forecasts. Critics say there should be firm limits when the outcome involves deaths, destruction or public emergencies.
Merkley, Wyden and the other senators are asking the Commodity Futures Trading Commission whether it plans to prohibit federally regulated markets from offering wildfire contracts. They also want to know what the agency can do about similar bets being offered through offshore platforms.
The senators requested answers by August 14.
For people across Oregon who’ve watched entire communities evacuate, homes burn and firefighters risk their lives, the idea of someone profiting from a wildfire’s growth may be difficult to comprehend.
Whether federal regulators will step in remains to be seen. For now, Oregon’s senators are making their position clear: Wildfire destruction shouldn’t be treated like a game.
