Oregonians will soon be sorting through their voters’ pamphlets and making room for another ballot on the kitchen table. Before those envelopes arrive, a new survey has given Gov. Tina Kotek a small advantage over Republican challenger Christine Drazan, putting the Democrat ahead for the first time in publicly reported polling this general election cycle. With less than a month until Election Day, however, the numbers leave plenty of uncertainty about who will lead Oregon next.
The DHM Research survey, commissioned by The Oregonian and released October 8, puts Kotek at 46% among likely voters and Drazan at 44%. Another 7% remain undecided, while Pacific Green candidate Brett Smith has 3% support. Researchers surveyed 600 registered voters from September 24 through October 1; the results for governor reflect the 549 respondents identified as likely voters. That group’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, leaving the candidates statistically tied.
A closer look at voters’ opinions helps explain why neither campaign can get comfortable. Among all registered voters surveyed, 36% viewed Kotek positively and 60% negatively, compared with 39% positive and 47% negative for Drazan. Some Democrats and liberals unwilling to support Kotek pointed to dissatisfaction with her performance and accomplishments, while some Republicans and conservatives unwilling to support Drazan cited objections to their party and its allies. Both candidates face resistance that reaches into their own political circles.
That uneasy choice also appeared in a separate September survey conducted by DHM for Oregon Public Broadcasting. In the published survey results, 54% of likely voters supporting or leaning toward Kotek described their decision primarily as a vote against Drazan. Among Drazan’s supporters and leaners, 51% said their choice was primarily a vote against Kotek. Those answers suggest that opposition to the other candidate is helping both women hold their coalitions together, even when enthusiasm for their own candidate is limited.
For families thinking about rent, groceries and another winter of heating bills, the campaign has plenty of practical ground to cover. In OPB’s poll, 52% of respondents identified an economic concern, including living costs, housing affordability, taxes or jobs, as Oregon’s biggest problem. Homelessness and dissatisfaction with government leadership also featured prominently. These concerns give the candidates a demanding task: explaining how their plans would improve daily life in communities with very different needs, from the Portland suburbs to Central Oregon and the coast.
The same survey revealed a gap between how people see their own finances and how they see Oregon’s economy. Among likely voters, 69% rated their personal financial situation as good, yet 73% rated the state’s economic conditions as poor. The survey does not establish what caused that difference. It does show that a voter can feel reasonably secure at home while remaining deeply worried about where Oregon is headed.
Against that backdrop, the polling sequence has become more favorable to Kotek. A June survey commissioned by Drazan’s campaign showed the Republican ahead 48% to 44%, followed by an early September survey showing her ahead 45% to 43%. OPB’s September poll put Drazan at 47% and Kotek at 46% after undecided respondents were asked which candidate they leaned toward. The October 8 release reverses the order, although every one of those reported advantages falls within its survey’s margin of error.
There are also reasons to read that progression cautiously. OPB interviewed voters September 17 through 27, while The Oregonian’s survey ran September 24 through October 1, so the two interviewing periods overlapped. OPB’s widely reported 47% to 46% result also included people who initially said they were undecided and then expressed a preference. Taken together, these details make the surveys less useful as a clean, week-by-week measure of changing minds; the apparent movement could reflect some combination of voter decisions, sampling variation and differences in how preferences were counted.
Oregon’s previous matchup offers some history, though it cannot settle this year’s contest. In 2022, Kotek received 917,074 votes statewide to Drazan’s 850,347, while unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson drew 168,431. Central Oregon produced a different result: Drazan finished ahead of Kotek in Deschutes County, 50,513 votes to 46,879, with Johnson receiving another 11,502. That county-level result is a reminder that the statewide winner can emerge from a patchwork of sharply different local contests.
A Drazan victory would end a Republican drought in Oregon gubernatorial elections stretching back to 1982. National forecasters still give Democrats an advantage, with both Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rating the contest “Lean Democrat.” Both have moved their assessments toward a more competitive race during this election cycle. Their ratings describe an advantage for Kotek’s party while leaving room for Drazan to win.
The next dates on Oregon’s official election calendar arrive well before November. October 13 is the voter registration deadline, and counties begin mailing ballots October 14. Voters can check their registration and ballot status through the Secretary of State’s My Vote service, particularly if they have moved recently. Official ballot drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on November 3, and the state recommends October 27 as the last day to return a ballot by mail.
