Nobody in Oregon looked at Portland over the past few years and thought, “Yep, everything’s going great.” So the latest polling showing Gov. Tina Kotek struggling in the state’s largest Democratic stronghold probably comes as a surprise to exactly nobody outside a Salem press office.
A newly released survey commissioned by The Oregonian/OregonLive found that 59% of registered voters in the Portland metro area now view Kotek negatively. Just 33% said they see her positively. The poll, conducted by DHM Research, surveyed 600 voters across Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas counties between late April and early May.
That matters because the Portland metro area is not just another voting bloc in Oregon politics. It is the engine that typically powers Democrats to statewide victories. When Democratic candidates dominate Portland and its suburbs, Republicans usually have little path forward. But when frustration starts building inside Oregon’s bluest region, suddenly statewide races become far more competitive.
And frustration is not exactly hard to find these days.
For years, Portland-area residents have dealt with rising housing costs, visible homelessness, public safety concerns, drug issues, crumbling roads, and an overall feeling that government leadership keeps promising improvements while everyday life gets more expensive and more chaotic. Whether voters blame city leaders, county officials, state lawmakers, or Kotek herself, many appear increasingly willing to take their frustration out on whoever currently holds power.
Kotek entered office promising aggressive action on housing and homelessness, making those issues central to her administration. While supporters argue some progress has been made behind the scenes, many voters clearly are not feeling the results in their daily lives yet. In politics, perception matters, and right now the perception among many Portland-area voters appears grim.
The numbers also arrive at an awkward moment politically.
Kotek is not facing a major Democratic challenger in the upcoming primary, but Republicans are already pointing to the poll as evidence that Oregon voters may finally be open to electing a Republican governor for the first time in decades. State Sen. Christine Drazan, who narrowly lost to Kotek in 2022, is widely viewed as the Republican frontrunner and could potentially set up a rematch this fall.
Adding to the intrigue, two influential progressive groups that backed Kotek during her last campaign, the Oregon Education Association and the Working Families Party, have reportedly declined to endorse a gubernatorial candidate so far this cycle. That does not necessarily mean they oppose Kotek, but it does suggest some hesitation within parts of the Democratic coalition that helped carry her into office.
Of course, polling this far out from an election is far from a crystal ball. Oregon still leans heavily Democratic statewide, especially in presidential election years when turnout in urban areas tends to surge. Many unhappy Democratic voters may still ultimately vote blue when faced with a Republican alternative.
Still, the poll highlights a very real political vulnerability.
It is one thing for a Democratic governor to struggle in conservative eastern Oregon counties. That is expected. But when approval numbers crater in the Portland metro area, the part of the state that Democrats rely on most, strategists on both sides start paying very close attention.
The bigger question now is whether these numbers reflect temporary frustration or something deeper brewing among Oregon voters.
Because if Portland voters are this unhappy now, and daily life in the metro area does not noticeably improve before ballots go out, 2026 could become a far more competitive race than many Democrats expected.
